State assembly elections are often used
by political observers to gauge the national mood and understand the
ever changing political equations at the national and state level. The
assembly elections of 2016 in 4 states Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu,
Kerala and 1 union territory Puducherry was keenly observed for their
significant impact in setting the national picture before the high
voltage assembly elections of 2017 of states like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab
kick in. With the results declared on May 19, the 2016 round has gone to
the BJP and regional parties while the slump of Congress continues
across the country.
The National Picture
BJP: Despite being a
national party, earlier BJP’s strength was mostly concentrated in the
north, west and central India. BJP had never been a major force in the
states which went to polls in 2016 (spread over the east and south
India). While it had only 5 seats in Assam assembly, WB assembly had
only one legislator from BJP in 2011. It had never won a seat in the
southern state of Kerala. On May 19, BJP led alliance not only won two
third majority in Assam also expanded its footprints in other states
with opening account in Kerala assembly & garnering 15% of total
votes in the state.
Formation of its first government of
North East in Assam may open the gateway for the party to gain foothold
in the north eastern states. The Narendra Modi government has been
giving special attention to this region since it came to power which is
part of the larger strategy to expand BJP’s base to make it a pan India
party. Apart from NE, Kerala with 15% vote share will play a major role
in its 2019 Lok Sabha election strategy.
Social engineering and broad coalitions helped BJP in Assam (AFP)
BJP can also take a leaf out of the
splendid campaign it ran in Assam with its local leaders as the face of
the campaign with PM Modi in the background. Social engineering at micro
level (gaining support from Tea estate workers, Rabha and Tiwa
communities) and broader alliances (with AGP and BPF) were two
significant elements of the BJP strategy in Assam which it would like to
replicate in other states especially in the crucial election of Uttar
Pradesh next year.
The results will embolden the Modi govt.
at center which seemed derailed after the losses in Delhi and Bihar.
With Mamata and Jayalalithaa’s victories in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu
respectively, the central government will be relieved as it is easier to
garner issue based support from regional parties in order to pass
important bills in Rajya Sabha where it lacks the majority. Mamata has
already declared her support to GST in her first press conference after
the win while Jayalalithaa shares a personal friendship with Modi. No
wonder, few days ago, Arun Jaitley sounded confident of passing the GST
bill in Rajya Sabha in the coming Monsoon season.
Congress: The leadership
has not been able to arrest the decline of Congress which roughly
started from 2012. It lost all the 4 states on its own or with its
allies. Among many things, the series of defeats prove the unpopularity
of the party all over the country. It may be increasingly difficult for
it to find new allies for upcoming elections. In fact, most of the space
Congress is receding in the states is being captured by the regional
parties making Congress insignificant.
After being thrown out of power in Assam
and Kerala, Congress rules in 6 states with only 7% of India’s
population residing in those states. Karnataka is the only big state in
these 6, other states being Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Mizoram,
Meghalaya and Manipur. At present, the party faces certain defeats in
Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh in 2018, while it’s far from competent to
retain Uttarakhand in 2017 after the rebellion by 9 of its MLAs. It may
win Punjab but even a new player AAP is spoiling its chances in the
northern state. On the other hand, BJP led NDA is expanding at rapid
pace and in power in 15 states. The grand old party is in need of bitter
medicine otherwise the idea of ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’ is not very far from reality.
The message beyond
There was a phase in Indian politics when
Indian voters were confused and distrusted the electoral system. This
phase was marred with low voter turnout and hung assemblies. The 2016
elections process and the results support the recent trend of more
electoral participation with high turnout at polling booths. The voters
are also rewarding the parties with absolute majority with hung
assemblies being a thing of past.
While the winning party workers are
jubilant and losing side is back to the drawing boards, one pressing
issue needs immediate attention of political parties. The run up to the
2016 assembly elections were far from ideal with instances of violence
and rampant distribution of cash and alcohol. Such practices can again
affect the new found trust in the system among the voters. Political
parties need to ensure fair election process of which the largest
democracy in the world can be proud of.
(This post was first published on YOurnib.com)
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